Matches

Market chance = (1 ÷ decimal odds) divided by the sum of all three implied chances. This removes the quoted margin proportionally; it is an estimate, not the true probability.

The optional goal model assumes independent Poisson goal counts. You set each team’s expected goals and blend its result with market probabilities. The default goal inputs are placeholders, not researched team ratings. Lineups, injuries and team strength are not automatically modeled. This version has not been backtested.

Parlay chances multiply the lower of each normalized market probability and its reciprocal quoted odds, assuming independence across matches. Manual goal scenarios do not change this price-based calculation. The target is the desired combined win chance, with ±5 percentage points allowed. Only one outcome per match is allowed. A negative estimated return is not a value opportunity. Positive values may reflect inaccurate assumptions. Full time includes stoppage time; excludes extra time and penalties.

Polymarket soccer covers MLS, EPL and supported international national-team and club competitions using public market snapshots: home, draw and away Yes-token bid/ask midpoints, normalized to total 100%. Decimal equivalents are 1 divided by the indicative ask. Spreads, order size, fees, fill availability and different cancellation rules affect real returns. Listed liquidity is not guaranteed depth at the best price. Quotes refresh every 30 seconds while visible; snapshots retrieved over two minutes ago or last updated by the provider over 15 minutes ago are excluded from combinations. This is a periodically refreshed snapshot feed, not a tick-by-tick stream. Started matches are display-only. Match results use listed 90-minute home/draw/away markets. The Goals, Both score and Handicap tabs load actual outcome order books on demand and refresh every 30 seconds while visible. Decimal odds use the lowest available sell price; chance estimates normalize the two outcome midpoints. Half-goal lines avoid pushes; +1.5 includes a win, draw or one-goal loss, and −0.5 requires a win by at least one goal. Only one market from each match can enter a combination, since outcomes within the same game are correlated. Tournament winners, qualification, extra-time markets and incomplete quotes are excluded. Combined views scan up to 100 open event records per competition; individual views scan up to 300, and partial coverage is disclosed. These are public Polymarket.com markets; product availability and prices may differ on Polymarket US.

Live fixture coverage comes from ESPN. Optional bookmaker data uses The Odds API. Feeds may be delayed or incomplete. No betting execution. Your combined-win target is saved on this device; saved parlays are stored privately with your sign-in; unsaved selections and manual scenarios are not.